NHL Betting Guide for Wednesday, December 1: Maple Leafs and Canucks Worth a Look
It’s hard to believe, but we’re already into the third month of the season, with most teams already playing over a quarter of their schedule. Some squads, like the Detroit Red Wings and Anaheim Ducks, are better than we expected to be, and some are exactly who we thought they were, like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Arizona Coyotes. There’s still plenty of time for underachievers (ahem, Vancouver Canucks, and New York Islanders) to get their seasons right, but the time to start picking things up is now. Only four full months until playoff time!
These are a few of our favorite wagers from the betting board at FanDuel Sportsbook!
Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Avalanche +108|Maple Leafs -130
Spread: Avalanche +1.5 (-245)|Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
Total: 6 Over -108|Under -112
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis, and Picks
Both the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs are on an impossible-to-maintain offensive tear. The Avs have scored 43 goals over their past eight games, scoring five or more in six of their eight contests. They’ll have to compete with a Leafs’ squad that has scored 15 over their previous three contests. Naturally, the betting market favors a low-scoring game when these teams collide in Toronto.
The Leafs return home after a successful four-game road trip in which they went 4-0-0, outscoring their opponents 18-4. That makes it nine wins over their past 10, as Toronto has climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division. Their advanced metrics imply that there are no signs of slowing down either. The Leafs have outplayed their opponents across all strengths in 14 of their past 15 games. They are attempting an average of 13.9 high-danger and 36.0 scoring chances over that stretch, getting out-chanced in both categories in just one game.
Colorado’s recent stretch has been nothing, if not unsustainable. The Avs’ incredible offensive run has come despite some questionable production metrics. Across all strengths, the Avs have attempted 10 or fewer high-danger chances in five of eight games, going above their expected goal total in seven of the eight. It’s also worth noting that Colorado has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in four of their six games, a stretch in which they have five wins. Colorado is well above expected right now and will enter a correction phase.
The Avs hot streak, coupled with the Leafs returning home from a West Coast roadie, has shifted the betting market away from the home team. We like the diminished price on the Leafs and expect them to knock the Avs off their unsustainable pedestal.
The Pick: Maple Leafs -130
Vancouver Canucks vs. Ottawa Senators Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Canucks -125|Senators +104
Spread: Canucks -1.5 (+205)|Senators +1.5 (-260)
Total: 5.5 Over -112|Under -108
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Ottawa Senators News, Analysis, and Picks
These teams are traveling in opposite directions on the advanced analytics tracks, setting the Vancouver Canucks up to run away with their meeting against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night.
The Sens have been utterly disappointing since returning from their COVID-19 hiatus. Ottawa is winless in all four games, but their poor metrics go further back than their return to action, posting a cumulative 38.4% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five over their past five. Ottawa has been outplayed in all five games and hasn’t attempted more than seven quality chances in any game.
That’s going to make it hard to compete with a Canucks team that is trending upward. Vancouver has outplayed four of their previous five opponents at five-on-five but only has one win during that span. We’ve recently seen tidier defensive efforts from the Nucks, limiting five of their past seven opponents to eight or fewer high-danger and 20 or fewer scoring chances. The improved defensive play is coming at the expense of offensive opportunities, as the Canucks have attempted eight or fewer quality chances in six straight games.
The betting market likes this game to go over the total, but we’re unsure where that offense is coming from. Neither team is operating efficiently in the attacking zone and has emphasized defense over their recent stretches. We like this one to stay under the total, with the Canucks prolonging the Sens misery.
The Picks: Canucks -125, Under 5.5 -108
